Thu, Oct 22, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 05 | 19 | 219 |
| CHI | 112 | 19 | 16 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:36FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 3:51CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 0:17CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:24FLAJaromir JagrPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Dave Bolland · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P2 0:13FLAJaromir Jagr: Holding2 min
- P2 3:33FLASteven Kampfer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:35CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:17FLABrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:42FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:28CHIMarcus Kruger: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:34CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:03FLADave Bolland: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:39FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:57FLAJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Bjugstad – Trocheck5:28
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Brickley – Howden6:12
xG 0.02–0.09 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Smith7:03
xG 0.01–0.26 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:05
xG 0.11–0.64 (14%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad14:19
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson12:36
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Kampfer – Kulikov10:12
xG 0.08–0.64 (11%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Tikhonov9:38
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin10:06
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw7:48
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Garbutt – Teravainen – Hinostroza6:27
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk15:39
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg12:23
xG 0.48–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Daley – Rundblad10:50
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).