Thu, Oct 22, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Washington Capitals 3, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 012 | 212 | 335 |
| VAN | 08 | 210 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:10WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Jay Beagle, Andre Burakovsky · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:14VANRadim VrbataAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 14:01VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:42WSHJay BeagleAssists: John Carlson, Marcus Johansson · Deflected, 0.28 xG2–2
- P3 15:05WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:18VANDerek Dorsett: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:33WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 9:05WSHJason Chimera: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:58WSHKarl Alzner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov11:07
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson11:22
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson8:41
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Laich – Stephenson – Burakovsky6:05
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner16:51
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Schmidt10:01
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Dorsett – McCann6:39
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Hansen – Sutter8:33
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Dorsett – Horvat4:24
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen4:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartkowski – Hutton3:19
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev11:58
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Bartkowski12:21
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).