Thu, Oct 22, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 28 | 111 | 110 | 429 |
| SJS | 018 | 112 | 010 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Alec Martinez, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 19:32LAKMilan LucicPPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Jeff Carter · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:46LAKJeff CarterAssists: Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 15:06SJSJoel WardAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 9:35LAKJeff CarterPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:15LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:12LAKMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:30SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:53SJSMike Brown: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:29SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:56LAKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:42LAKJamie McBain: Interference2 min
- P2 18:09LAKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:33SJSMike Brown: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15LAKDustin Brown: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:15SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli10:29
xG 0.61–0.47 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar11:11
xG 0.38–0.39 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Lewis – Shore – Pearson11:35
xG 0.58–0.69 (46%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:38
xG 0.00–1.14 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez13:26
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain11:28
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb15:37
xG 0.33–2.27 (13%)attempts 14–26goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Nieto – Hertl4:08
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Ward – Pavelski4:02
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Nieto5:10
xG 0.39–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl6:22
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTennyson – Mueller10:06
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon17:17
xG 0.99–0.66 (60%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Braun13:55
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).