Fri, Oct 23, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Washington Capitals 7, Edmonton Oilers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 310 | 39 | 17 | 726 |
| EDM | 29 | 29 | 05 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:59EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Nail Yakupov, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 12:07WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 15:00EDMRob KlinkhammerAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 19:39WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Justin Williams, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 0:36EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 6:17WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: John Carlson, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P2 9:26WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P2 11:49WSHJustin WilliamsAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–3
- P2 14:42EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Anton Slepyshev · Snap, 0.07 xG6–4
- P3 16:59WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, John Carlson · Snap, 0.09 xG7–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:11WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:32EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:12WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:23EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29EDMTaylor Hall: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:16WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Interference2 min
- P3 8:21WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:13WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:01EDMAndrew Ference: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov12:50
xG 0.86–0.46 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson8:39
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson9:51
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Laich – Stephenson – Burakovsky5:13
xG 0.01–0.64 (2%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson14:28
xG 0.89–0.42 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 3–1
- Niskanen – Alzner13:46
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Chorney – Orlov10:37
xG 0.29–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev2:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Yakupov – McDavid9:40
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Letestu – Gazdic – Slepyshev4:33
xG 0.14–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Lander – Slepyshev2:24
xG 0.03–0.08 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne11:16
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Gryba – Klefbom3:05
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Schultz – Klefbom10:46
xG 0.24–0.49 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).