Sat, Oct 24, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 213 | 18 | 428 |
| BUF | 16 | 112 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:42BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Cody Franson, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:10NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 2:31BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Sam Reinhart, Tyler Ennis · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:57NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Sergey Kalinin · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 19:11NJDDavid SchlemkoAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:15NJDAdam HenriqueSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:15BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:30NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:46NJDSergey Kalinin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:41BUFCody Franson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:31NJDAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:05BUFJake McCabe: Holding2 min
- P3 8:51NJDDamon Severson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:31NJDBrian O'Neill: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique12:56
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 2–0
- Tootoo – Josefson – O'Neill9:04
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – O'Neill – Kalinin2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri9:44
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Gelinas7:28
xG 0.62–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Moore3:27
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson16:33
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – Girgensons6:40
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Deslauriers3:23
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart8:27
xG 0.07–0.17 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Larsson – Eichel7:09
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe14:50
xG 1.11–0.78 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Franson12:41
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:19
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).