Sat, Oct 24, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 113 | 114 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 239 |
| PHI | 112 | 113 | 018 | 05 | 2 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:15PHIMark StreitAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Sam Gagner · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:30NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 2:07PHIScott LaughtonUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:48NYRDerick BrassardPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sam Gagner scored
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux scored
- 4. NYR Derek Stepan scored
- 5. PHI Wayne Simmonds stopped
- 6. NYR Dominic Moore stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:20PHIWayne Simmonds: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 2:52PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:07NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P3 6:57PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:35NYRJ.T. Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Moore – Stalberg7:04
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Lindberg – Hayes – Miller8:53
xG 1.19–0.74 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Nash – Stepan – Zuccarello11:17
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Fast2:26
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Girardi12:01
xG 1.22–0.44 (74%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Klein – McDonagh15:25
xG 1.01–0.41 (71%)attempts 19–20goals 0–1
- Boyle – Staal11:04
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Simmonds – Read8:26
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl6:15
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare11:30
xG 0.34–0.75 (31%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Schenn7:10
xG 0.26–0.70 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas16:12
xG 1.17–0.44 (72%)attempts 27–14goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz14:31
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Manning – Medvedev12:20
xG 0.76–1.75 (30%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).