Sat, Oct 24, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 17 | 02 | 14 | 322 |
| STL | 08 | 014 | 215 | 03 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:52NYIKyle OkposoPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 18:41NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 2:26STLColton ParaykoAssists: Steve Ott · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 10:51STLAlexander SteenAssists: Colton Parayko, Jori Lehtera · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:00NYIMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31STLVladimir Tarasenko: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:07NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:26STLChris Butler: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:29NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P2 5:08NYIMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:53STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:42NYITravis Hamonic: Delaying game2 min
- P3 12:37NYIBrian Strait: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Grabovski – Nelson9:33
xG 0.80–0.35 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Lee7:32
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Kulemin – Bailey – Tavares10:44
xG 0.19–0.41 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:26
xG 0.15–0.70 (17%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrait – Hickey8:49
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Hamonic – de Haan14:03
xG 0.15–0.58 (21%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy15:07
xG 0.40–0.97 (29%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko12:43
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves6:49
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gomez – Ott – Rattie2:01
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Jaskin12:12
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo15:55
xG 0.86–0.69 (55%)attempts 28–9goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Parayko13:54
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson7:00
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).