Sat, Oct 24, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 6, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 213 | 28 | 630 |
| DAL | 110 | 016 | 19 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:03FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:18FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:22FLAAaron EkbladGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 14:59FLADave BollandAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 4:01DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 5:32FLAReilly SmithAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Snap, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 16:55FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Derek MacKenzie · Backhand, 0.16 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:51FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 2:14FLAShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
- P1 2:17DALJason Spezza: Interference2 min
- P1 16:47FLABrandon Pirri: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:55FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:55DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:07DALValeri Nichushkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:16FLAConnor Brickley: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:40DALJamie Oleksiak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:40FLAAlexander Petrovic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Bolland – Smith11:43
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 9–17goals 2–0
- MacKenzie – Howden – Trocheck2:52
xG 0.19–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:27
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Pirri – Howden – Trocheck8:50
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Gudbranson13:41
xG 1.02–0.67 (60%)attempts 16–18goals 3–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic13:34
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad15:20
xG 0.72–0.72 (50%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Sceviour – Faksa7:16
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Nichushkin9:28
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Faksa – Nichushkin2:08
xG 0.14–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sharp – Benn – Seguin14:39
xG 0.68–0.71 (49%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Oleksiak13:27
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Goligoski – Klingberg17:01
xG 0.89–1.01 (47%)attempts 21–17goals 1–4
- Oduya – Benn11:44
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).