Sat, Oct 24, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 04 | 08 | 00 | 021 |
| CHI | 09 | 010 | 011 | 12 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:17CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:37TBLNikita Nesterov: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:55CHIDavid Rundblad: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:31CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:46CHIDavid Rundblad: Interference2 min
- P2 19:21CHIAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P3 3:33TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:51TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Namestnikov – Paquette6:40
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Stamkos – Palat2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Filppula – Killorn – Stamkos5:50
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Callahan – Stamkos – Drouin5:30
xG 0.08–0.18 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Nesterov3:13
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Garrison6:54
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:34
xG 0.08–0.01 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin10:11
xG 0.57–0.13 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Garbutt – Teravainen – Hinostroza6:50
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Toews – Tikhonov10:07
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw6:06
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk16:20
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Daley – Rundblad10:04
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg14:19
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 18–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).