Sat, Oct 24, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 09 | 216 | 436 |
| COL | 110 | 213 | 011 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:21COLJack SkilleAssists: Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:04CBJBoone JennerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:56CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: David Savard, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 1:43COLJarome IginlaAssists: Blake Comeau, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 17:12COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 3:56CBJRyan MurrayAssists: Rene Bourque, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 6:43CBJBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: David Savard, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:15CBJDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:15COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:15CBJDavid Clarkson: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:48CBJDalton Prout: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:41COLMikhail Grigorenko: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09CBJCody Goloubef: Delaying game2 min
- P2 15:27CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:44CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 15:47COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P3 1:02COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:27COLBlake Comeau: Interference2 min
- P3 19:05CBJRyan Murray: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Landeskog
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Atkinson – Wennberg9:52
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Saad9:35
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Calvert – Jenner – Karlsson8:13
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Campbell – Clarkson – Bourque5:39
xG 0.02–0.23 (6%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Murray14:03
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Tyutin – Prout13:49
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard12:40
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Soderberg – Everberg9:35
xG 0.41–0.10 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Iginla – Comeau – Duchene9:59
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Skille – Landeskog – MacKinnon2:07
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Landeskog – MacKinnon9:16
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson15:16
xG 0.26–0.19 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Guenin – Zadorov12:28
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Holden – Gormley13:29
xG 0.34–0.77 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).