Sat, Oct 24, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 212 | 015 | 234 |
| SJS | 26 | 28 | 17 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21SJSJoel WardAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 8:32SJSJoel WardAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:09CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Victor Rask · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 6:08SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 9:09SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Chris Tierney, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P2 10:43CARRiley NashAssists: Noah Hanifin, Kris Versteeg · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 19:03SJSJoel WardENAssists: Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:13SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:10SJSBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:39SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:20CARKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestVersteeg – Nash – Skinner13:09
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 20–2goals 1–0
- McClement – Malone – McGinn7:24
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Staal – Terry11:50
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Rask – Lindholm10:52
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Hanifin12:41
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Liles – Faulk9:27
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Liles – Pesce6:23
xG 0.05–0.16 (23%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Nieto12:26
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ward – Hertl14:12
xG 1.13–0.84 (57%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Wingels – Goodrow – Tierney12:37
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Brown – McCarthy – Lerg6:50
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 0–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Tennyson13:22
xG 0.85–0.25 (77%)attempts 4–16goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun15:59
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns17:03
xG 0.53–0.78 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).