Sun, Oct 25, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 29 | 112 | 430 |
| WPG | 317 | 210 | 06 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10MINJason ZuckerAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 1:22WPGBryan LittleAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 3:27WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 12:12WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Mark Scheifele, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 0:51WPGDrew StaffordAssists: Adam Lowry, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 4:34WPGDrew StaffordGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P2 14:17MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P2 14:55MINJustin FontaineAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 10:41MINZach PariseAssists: Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:49WPGChris Thorburn: Holding2 min
- P2 1:37MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:24WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P2 13:11WPGAlexander Burmistrov: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:41WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:57WPGDustin Byfuglien: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Coyle – Fontaine8:36
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Porter – Carter – Haula6:55
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:31
xG 0.29–0.63 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter12:19
xG 0.29–0.73 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin3:50
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin7:29
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Scandella – Brodin2:43
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:01
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry12:33
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 1–2
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan7:59
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers11:00
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:44
xG 1.05–0.47 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 3–1
- Stuart – Trouba13:12
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Myers – Chiarot14:15
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).