Sun, Oct 25, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 110 | 113 | 111 | 334 |
| EDM | 18 | 05 | 115 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 6:04LAKJeff CarterAssists: Milan Lucic, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:36LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 13:56EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Oscar Klefbom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 16:34LAKTanner PearsonPPGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:04LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:04EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:05LAKJeff Carter: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24EDMLauri Korpikoski: Holding2 min
- P3 12:07LAKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05EDMLauri Korpikoski: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Pearson11:23
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli12:54
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff8:18
xG 0.29–0.51 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Shore9:19
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb19:57
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain13:02
xG 0.45–0.58 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez16:08
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Yakupov – McDavid12:14
xG 1.11–0.22 (83%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Klinkhammer – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins14:47
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Korpikoski – Purcell – Lander11:07
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Letestu – Gazdic – Pakarinen4:22
xG 0.02–0.33 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Fayne11:53
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Gryba4:41
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Davidson – Klefbom2:18
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).