Tue, Oct 27, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 014 | 113 | 12 | 440 |
| PHI | 17 | 013 | 210 | 03 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 10:39BUFJamie McGinnPPAssists: Johan Larsson, Brian Gionta · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 14:20PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Ryan White, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 8:14PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Scott Laughton, Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 9:38BUFJake McCabeAssists: Cody Franson, Johan Larsson · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:06PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 2:29BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:12PHIClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:20BUFCody Franson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:19PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:06BUFMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Reinhart – Eichel9:26
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Deslauriers11:34
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Girgensons10:51
xG 0.48–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Legwand – McGinn – Foligno5:04
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Pysyk14:34
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Franson – McCabe14:48
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 26–11goals 1–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:46
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Simmonds – Read12:34
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – White – Bellemare2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl13:13
xG 0.20–0.38 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – White – Laughton4:14
xG 0.04–0.42 (10%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto2:09
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Medvedev8:49
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 12–7goals 2–1
- Del Zotto – Gudas14:30
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).