Tue, Oct 27, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 012 | 18 | 132 |
| FLA | 110 | 09 | 39 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:40FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Roberto Luongo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 2:58FLAVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 9:49FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 14:02FLABrian CampbellSHAssists: Reilly Smith, Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 19:03COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:53FLADave Bolland: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:33FLAAlexander Petrovic: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:37COLAlex Tanguay: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:00FLADave Bolland: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:08FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:44COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51COLFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Tanguay – Comeau – Soderberg8:43
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Skille – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:41
xG 0.13–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Iginla – Duchene – Everberg8:36
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Grigorenko7:57
xG 0.07–0.26 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov2:38
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov2:10
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Smith – Pirri6:23
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Huberdeau9:26
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pirri – Howden – Trocheck3:47
xG 0.09–0.01 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bolland – Smith2:47
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad16:13
xG 0.28–0.11 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic14:15
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson12:28
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).