Tue, Oct 27, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 110 | 314 | 432 |
| WPG | 09 | 111 | 05 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:45WPGNikolaj EhlersUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:50LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 15:19LAKMilan LucicGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 19:06LAKTyler ToffoliENAssists: Marian Gaborik · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
- P3 19:33LAKTrevor LewisENAssists: Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 19:00LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:17WPGJacob Trouba: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Lucic – Toffoli13:12
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Clifford4:49
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Pearson6:49
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar6:36
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez18:25
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 19–16goals 2–0
- Doughty – McNabb20:11
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 22–7goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain13:24
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Burmistrov – Lowry12:26
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp7:11
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little15:12
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers11:08
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba15:25
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:49
xG 0.40–0.50 (45%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Myers – Chiarot16:43
xG 0.26–0.96 (22%)attempts 13–26goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).