Tue, Oct 27, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 39 | 09 | 02 | 320 |
| DAL | 06 | 311 | 117 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:44ANAMike SantorelliPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Jiri Sekac · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:56ANAShawn HorcoffAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.28 xG2–0
- P1 19:10ANACarl HagelinAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.25 xG3–0
- P2 7:30DALPatrick SharpPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 15:27DALCody EakinSHAssists: Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 17:01DALJohn KlingbergAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 18:32DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Jamie Oleksiak · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:27ANAChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:27DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25ANATim Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:47DALVernon Fiddler: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:53DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:50ANAJakob Silfverberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:06DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:30DALPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:47ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:23
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Perry – Hagelin – Rakell3:28
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Cogliano – Silfverberg5:07
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Perry – Hagelin7:23
xG 0.27–0.98 (22%)attempts 3–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Vatanen13:19
xG 0.14–0.64 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm15:22
xG 0.55–1.13 (33%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Holzer – Fowler10:35
xG 0.03–0.91 (4%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Faksa – Janmark5:05
xG 0.76–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel5:12
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin8:35
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Faksa2:58
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Benn13:47
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg15:16
xG 0.89–0.58 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Jokipakka – Oleksiak8:30
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).