Tue, Oct 27, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Montréal Canadiens 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 012 | 011 | 13 | 126 |
| VAN | 311 | 09 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:30VANJared McCannAssists: Brandon Prust, Derek Dorsett · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 9:12VANLuca SbisaGWGAssists: Sven Baertschi · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 15:52VANJared McCannAssists: Brandon Prust · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:54MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Alexei Emelin, Devante Smith-Pelly · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 7:50VANRadim VrbataPPAssists: Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 10:56VANDerek DorsettAssists: Jake Virtanen, Brandon Sutter · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:21MTLTomas Fleischmann: Interference2 min
- P1 19:28VANSven Baertschi: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:06VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:04MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn8:32
xG 1.01–0.18 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:27
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise14:27
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Semin – Eller – Galchenyuk11:18
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry17:42
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Beaulieu15:18
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:07
xG 0.77–0.94 (45%)attempts 13–17goals 0–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vrbata11:06
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Sutter – Virtanen13:14
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Hansen – Baertschi – Horvat9:13
xG 0.29–0.47 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Prust – Dorsett – McCann6:33
xG 0.70–0.94 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Sbisa – Bartkowski15:49
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Edler – Tanev19:22
xG 0.95–1.11 (46%)attempts 13–20goals 2–1
- Weber – Hutton14:44
xG 0.29–0.73 (28%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).