Wed, Oct 28, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Washington Capitals 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 014 | 04 | 37 | 325 |
| WSH | 013 | 014 | 17 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:28WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 1:52PITBeau BennettAssists: Nick Bonino, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 3:49PITPhil KesselGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:17PITNick BoninoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:09WSHChandler Stephenson: Elbowing2 min
- P1 6:24WSHBrooks Orpik: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:28WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:21PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:53PITDavid Perron: Charging2 min
- P2 19:39PITIan Cole: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45PITIan Cole: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Bonino – Bennett2:50
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Cullen – Porter – Bennett5:02
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Sprong6:03
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Cullen – Porter – Sprong2:57
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Maatta13:05
xG 0.82–0.30 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Dumoulin14:43
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole16:41
xG 0.23–0.96 (20%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov9:07
xG 0.70–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Laich – Stephenson – Burakovsky5:01
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson8:41
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Wilson9:09
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Orlov9:54
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson13:14
xG 0.73–0.58 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov2:31
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).