Thu, Oct 29, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 110 | 310 | 433 |
| PHI | 07 | 112 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:04PHILuke SchennAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 18:12NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Jacob Josefson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 1:28NJDKyle PalmieriGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 2:32NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Eric Gelinas · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:53NJDAndy GreeneENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:10PHIBrayden Schenn: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:38NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:06PHIChris VandeVelde: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:39PHINick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:33PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:12NJDJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:16PHIBrayden Schenn: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGionta – O'Neill – Kalinin2:00
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Stempniak – Henrique12:29
xG 0.66–0.55 (54%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Josefson – Kalinin8:07
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Zajac – Tlusty – Palmieri11:52
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Merrill4:12
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson16:12
xG 0.58–0.41 (58%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson4:21
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Simmonds – Read6:40
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – White5:33
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Read4:38
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl8:22
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto17:56
xG 0.98–1.03 (49%)attempts 24–16goals 0–0
- Schenn – Manning12:03
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Schultz – Medvedev10:39
xG 0.06–0.42 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).