Thu, Oct 29, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 17 | 04 | 123 |
| STL | 010 | 19 | 115 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:33ANAHampus LindholmPPAssists: Corey Perry, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–0
- P2 6:18STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jori Lehtera, Steve Ott · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 10:31STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Ty Rattie, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 4:56STLTy Rattie: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:38ANARyan Kesler: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:49STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31STLSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31ANAPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:31ANAKorbinian Holzer: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:24ANARyan Kesler: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:20ANACorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20ANACorey Perry: Holding2 min
- P2 17:16STLDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:49STLJori Lehtera: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Stewart – Rakell – Sekac8:43
xG 0.09–0.05 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Maroon – Wagner6:20
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kesler – Perry – Hagelin9:33
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg8:02
xG 0.05–0.49 (9%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vatanen – Fowler2:11
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen10:13
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Holzer – Fowler12:02
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko10:14
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Brouwer – Jaskin6:48
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Rattie – Fabbri7:18
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves4:55
xG 0.02–0.28 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko12:27
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:06
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Pietrangelo2:04
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).