Thu, Oct 29, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 114 | 018 | 014 | 146 |
| WPG | 19 | 113 | 19 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:12WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 5:09WPGAndrew LaddPPGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault · Snap, 0.49 xG1–2
- P3 8:04WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:18WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:19WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:32CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:04CHIRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:03CHIJonathan Toews: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Tikhonov8:07
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Bickell – Garbutt – Kero7:01
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw6:50
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin11:51
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk15:51
xG 1.09–0.29 (79%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Svedberg14:16
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Daley – Rundblad13:21
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Burmistrov – Lowry13:22
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Copp – Petan6:14
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers9:30
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:11
xG 0.14–0.62 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba15:18
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Myers – Chiarot12:51
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:40
xG 0.38–0.95 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).