Thu, Oct 29, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 311 | 05 | 05 | 321 |
| EDM | 05 | 111 | 311 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:27MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Tomas Plekanec · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 16:56MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:51MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Andrei Markov, Brian Flynn · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 19:08EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Oscar Klefbom · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 6:15EDMBrandon DavidsonAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:43EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Connor McDavid, Nail Yakupov · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 18:58EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:27MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:36EDMBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 14:55EDMEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 18:31MTLTomas Fleischmann: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13EDMBenoit Pouliot: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:13MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lander won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:20
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Flynn – Galchenyuk9:53
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise11:33
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Smith-Pelly7:42
xG 0.19–0.37 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry14:21
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Markov – Subban15:04
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Beaulieu12:50
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Yakupov – McDavid12:30
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl15:54
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Purcell – Pakarinen – Slepyshev4:22
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Purcell – Lander – Pakarinen4:33
xG 0.02–0.21 (8%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Nurse12:19
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Klefbom2:01
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Davidson – Klefbom9:59
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).