Fri, Oct 30, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 09 | 110 | 125 |
| NYR | 19 | 07 | 210 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 5:34NYRMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 18:09TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 19:11NYRMats ZuccarelloENAssists: Derick Brassard, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:59TORLeo Komarov: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:10TORPeter Holland: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:28TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Winnik – Bozak13:37
xG 1.39–0.43 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Clune – Grabner – Froese7:32
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Holland8:06
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri12:40
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin9:58
xG 0.80–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly16:14
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Phaneuf – Gardiner15:08
xG 0.47–0.97 (32%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:28
xG 0.98–0.18 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Lindberg – Hayes – Miller10:01
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Fast12:26
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Stoll – Moore – Etem11:13
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – McDonagh15:03
xG 0.98–0.53 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Girardi14:58
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).