Fri, Oct 30, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 29 | 014 | 330 |
| FLA | 07 | 17 | 018 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Colin Miller · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:07BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Brett Connolly · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 9:13BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 11:32FLANick BjugstadPPAssists: Dave Bolland, Brandon Pirri · Slap, 0.44 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:57FLAReilly Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:37BOSJimmy Hayes: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:28FLABrandon Pirri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:53BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:20BOSJoe Morrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:29FLABrandon Pirri: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:01BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:54BOSBrad Marchand: Boarding5 min
- P3 17:54BOSBrad Marchand: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Hayes – Spooner9:25
xG 2.39–0.18 (93%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Kelly – Rinaldo – Randell4:29
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly9:42
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Pastrnak10:49
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrow5:07
xG 2.41–0.21 (92%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug3:34
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Chara – Miller7:57
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bjugstad – Huberdeau5:05
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Brickley5:14
xG 0.08–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Bjugstad – Huberdeau5:53
xG 0.02–0.07 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Bolland – Smith – Pirri4:55
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:18
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Petrovic10:24
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson14:49
xG 0.29–2.57 (10%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).