Fri, Oct 30, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 29 | 010 | 429 |
| MIN | 316 | 16 | 18 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:06CHIJonathan ToewsSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 10:33CHIBrent SeabrookPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 14:52MINRyan CarterAssists: Erik Haula, Chris Porter · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P1 19:49MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Marco Scandella, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 3:01MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P2 10:47CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P2 13:42CHIArtem AnisimovAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 0:32MINNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Mikko Koivu · Snap, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:57CHIViktor Svedberg: Interference2 min
- P1 9:49MINJustin Fontaine: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:17CHIAndrew Desjardins: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Toews – Garbutt – Teravainen9:05
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Teravainen – Hartman – Kero3:54
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw8:58
xG 0.08–0.20 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hossa – Hartman – Kero2:43
xG 0.10–0.29 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Gustafsson10:26
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Daley – van Riemsdyk2:26
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Svedberg12:22
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 1–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund15:12
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Porter – Carter – Haula9:19
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine3:27
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Niederreiter11:08
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser10:35
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba11:16
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:45
xG 0.63–0.54 (54%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).