Sat, Oct 31, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 3, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 39 | 011 | 329 |
| DAL | 110 | 26 | 29 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33DALPatrick SharpAssists: Jason Demers, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 7:09DALJason DemersSHAssists: Antoine Roussel, Vernon Fiddler · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 8:23SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Joel Ward · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:56SJSMatt NietoSHAssists: Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 15:00DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrap-around, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 17:57SJSJoel WardPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 13:33DALAntoine RousselGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Vernon Fiddler · Tip-in, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 18:37DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Patrick Sharp, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:41SJSTomas Hertl: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:53SJSJoonas Donskoi: Interference2 min
- P2 4:23DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 6:57DALAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:06SJSJustin Braun: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:20DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:14DALJyrki Jokipakka: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:11SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:45SJSChris Tierney: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Ward – Hertl12:15
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Smith – Goodrow3:43
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – Pavelski – Donskoi11:47
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney10:08
xG 0.05–0.85 (5%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:43
xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Burns – Vlasic2:07
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Martin – Burns13:39
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSharp – Benn – Seguin10:42
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel10:24
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Spezza – Eakin – Nichushkin9:55
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Faksa – Janmark7:55
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Demers11:34
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:44
xG 0.68–0.53 (57%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Jokipakka12:21
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).