Sat, Oct 31, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 19 | 214 | 19 | 432 |
| TOR | 05 | 09 | 07 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33PITChris KunitzPPGWGAssists: David Perron, Beau Bennett · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 2:34PITEric FehrSHAssists: Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 10:29PITMatt CullenAssists: Eric Fehr, Rob Scuderi · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P3 4:31PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Marc-Andre Fleury · Snap, 0.08 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:06TORMatt Hunwick: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:06PITPascal Dupuis: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:12PITMarc-Andre Fleury: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:02TORByron Froese: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02TORRich Clune: Boarding5 min
- P2 2:22PITPascal Dupuis: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:41PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 16:44TORRich Clune: Leaving penalty box2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Crosby – Hornqvist9:29
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron10:37
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Bennett6:54
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fehr – Plotnikov7:12
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin11:14
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Letang – Cole14:58
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Maatta11:39
xG 0.12–0.19 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Matthias – Bozak2:33
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Komarov – van Riemsdyk – Kadri7:29
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Matthias – Holland3:24
xG 0.03–0.01 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Winnik – Holland4:02
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Polak – Marincin10:41
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Hunwick – Rielly11:03
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner13:24
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).