Sat, Oct 31, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 2, Florida Panthers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 06 | 010 | 19 | 12 | 227 |
| FLA | 010 | 16 | 010 | 01 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:47FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Dave Bolland, Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:23WSHJay BeagleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- OT 3:44WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:38WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:41WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:42FLAErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min
- P2 16:07FLAConnor Brickley: Interference2 min
- P3 7:03WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Beagle4:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Backstrom – Johansson5:03
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Wilson2:27
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Beagle – Burakovsky3:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Schmidt8:52
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson16:31
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Alzner15:40
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:11
xG 0.89–0.47 (66%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Pirri – Trocheck9:21
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Brickley6:06
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bolland – Howden – Grimaldi7:35
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Gudbranson12:45
xG 0.90–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Campbell – Kulikov6:09
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekblad11:27
xG 0.35–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).