Sat, Oct 31, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Winnipeg Jets 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 311 | 012 | 04 | 327 |
| CBJ | 14 | 010 | 17 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52WPGBryan LittleAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:45WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Tyler Myers, Anthony Peluso · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 10:32CBJBrandon SaadAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 16:59WPGBlake WheelerPPGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 18:46CBJScott HartnellAssists: Cam Atkinson, David Savard · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:30WPGAnthony Peluso: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:13CBJMatt Calvert: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:50CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:17CBJRyan Johansen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:57CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:57WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:25WPGAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P3 10:10WPGMark Stuart: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ladd won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little10:32
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Peluso – Copp4:37
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry9:15
xG 0.15–0.18 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Perreault – Scheifele – Ehlers11:42
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:38
xG 0.50–0.14 (77%)attempts 26–8goals 1–0
- Myers – Chiarot10:08
xG 0.35–0.36 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Stuart – Trouba12:27
xG 0.10–0.44 (18%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Calvert – Jenner – Wennberg4:39
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Campbell – Calvert – Karlsson2:08
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Saad7:47
xG 0.14–0.19 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Calvert – Jenner – Karlsson4:57
xG 0.01–0.08 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Prout – Connauton12:01
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard15:57
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Murray10:58
xG 0.06–0.20 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).