Sat, Oct 31, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 09 | 010 | 05 | 231 |
| STL | 27 | 08 | 08 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:47STLDavid BackesAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:40STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 15:14MINJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 19:17MINErik HaulaAssists: Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:26STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: Ty Rattie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:31STLKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:31MINRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:12MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:12STLRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:29STLTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P2 6:04STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:03STLSteve Ott: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:59MINNate Prosser: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:57STLJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:27MINMikael Granlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27STLSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:27MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:50STLRobert Bortuzzo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter11:01
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Porter – Carter – Haula6:11
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund9:16
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Vanek – Schroeder – Coyle8:13
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:28
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Scandella – Brodin7:46
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser6:38
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Brodziak – Reaves2:15
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Upshall – Steen – Lehtera6:41
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Upshall – Backes – Brouwer2:53
xG 0.10–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ott – Backes – Brouwer7:45
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:02
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo3:58
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson5:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).