Sat, Oct 31, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 5, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 312 | 110 | 110 | 532 |
| EDM | 18 | 111 | 24 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58CGYBrandon BolligAssists: TJ Brodie, Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:34CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:15EDMTaylor HallAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 17:27CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Kris Russell, Josh Jooris · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 10:38EDMBrandon DavidsonPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 16:30CGYTJ BrodiePPAssists: Sam Bennett, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 0:48EDMTeddy PurcellPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 6:40EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 19:51CGYMichael FrolikGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:15EDMNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:15CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:19CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 2:57CGYJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:04CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:39EDMEric Gryba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:11CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:56EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:53EDMBenoit Pouliot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Frolik – Jooris9:21
xG 0.60–0.11 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Bennett8:22
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Bollig6:25
xG 0.06–0.01 (83%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan2:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (45%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie16:00
xG 0.87–0.22 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 3–1
- Engelland – Hamilton9:54
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Wideman – Giordano16:17
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Letestu – Purcell – Lander2:16
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Purcell – Pakarinen – Slepyshev3:14
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Purcell – Lander – Pakarinen3:06
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl12:56
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Klefbom14:08
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Ference – Gryba11:13
xG 0.16–0.53 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse14:38
xG 0.13–0.60 (18%)attempts 10–15goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).