Sun, Nov 1, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 017 | 217 | 08 | 242 |
| ANA | 313 | 112 | 03 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11ANARickard RakellAssists: Chris Stewart, Jiri Sekac · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:08ANASami VatanenAssists: Clayton Stoner, Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 11:20ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Sami Vatanen · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:23NSHShea WeberPPAssists: Roman Josi, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 11:00ANAChris StewartAssists: Korbinian Holzer, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 12:59NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Colin Wilson, Cody Hodgson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:39ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:15NSHGabriel Bourque: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:10ANAChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:00ANAJakob Silfverberg: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26NSHColin Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:12ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:58ANAMike Santorelli: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:15NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:15ANAHampus Lindholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:17ANAJakob Silfverberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:49NSHFilip Forsberg: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Forsberg12:38
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Salomaki6:32
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Bourque – Watson4:50
xG 0.26–0.24 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Hodgson – Jarnkrok4:21
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm11:46
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
- Weber – Josi12:45
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Jackman – Jones8:17
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Rakell – Sekac4:21
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Stewart – Hagelin – Rakell3:29
xG 0.28–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Santorelli – Maroon – Wagner6:09
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:25
xG 0.23–0.42 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Fowler7:44
xG 0.85–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Bieksa – Lindholm13:26
xG 0.16–0.67 (20%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen12:35
xG 0.25–0.96 (20%)attempts 10–30goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).