Mon, Nov 2, 2015·United Center, Chicago
Los Angeles Kings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 210 | 06 | 019 | 235 |
| CHI | 16 | 08 | 312 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 14:39LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Kyle Clifford, Jake Muzzin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 18:43LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Jake Muzzin, Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 1:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook, Viktor Svedberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:02CHITeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:27CHIArtem AnisimovSHAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:05LAKBrayden McNabb: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:27CHIMarcus Kruger: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:27LAKAnze Kopitar: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:56CHIArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:40CHIRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Kopitar – Lewis7:01
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Shore2:20
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Shore – Pearson4:37
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff5:48
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez14:56
xG 0.90–0.41 (69%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Doughty – McNabb19:59
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Muzzin3:02
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Garbutt – Panarin13:17
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Teravainen11:31
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw8:04
xG 0.51–0.71 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Dano – Hartman – Kero7:51
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Svedberg18:58
xG 1.10–0.74 (60%)attempts 18–18goals 1–1
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk19:32
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson2:27
xG 0.22–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).