Tue, Nov 3, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 5, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 29 | 24 | 519 |
| BOS | 215 | 09 | 115 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:46DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 7:14BOSColin MillerAssists: Torey Krug, Jimmy Hayes · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:35BOSLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P2 4:37DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:18DALJyrki JokipakkaAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Jordie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 1:18DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 9:13DALAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Mattias Janmark, Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 17:45BOSLoui ErikssonAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:20DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00BOSMatt Beleskey: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:31BOSBrett Connolly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:13DALAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:20DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:06BOSTorey Krug: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:34DALCody Eakin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:13BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Sharp – Eakin – Janmark9:45
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin11:11
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Faksa – Shore – Nichushkin9:45
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel7:20
xG 0.01–0.27 (4%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benn – Jokipakka11:32
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 1–2
- Oduya – Demers17:11
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg16:20
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Khokhlachev11:30
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Connolly9:55
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner9:15
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller9:48
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Miller – Krug10:50
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:48
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).