Tue, Nov 3, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 18 | 011 | 11 | 227 |
| MTL | 010 | 112 | 015 | 00 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:16OTTJean-Gabriel PageauSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:13MTLDale WeisePPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 0:34OTTKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:31OTTCody Ceci: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:08OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27MTLDale Weise: Delaying game2 min
- P3 16:09OTTMarc Methot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Chiasson – Pageau13:41
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Prince – Zibanejad9:49
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Lazar13:03
xG 0.56–0.64 (47%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Puempel6:03
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Karlsson19:10
xG 0.72–0.67 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci16:44
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen12:19
xG 0.41–0.68 (38%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – Galchenyuk10:48
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:35
xG 1.00–0.68 (59%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Byron – Flynn8:29
xG 0.12–0.22 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise12:24
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban17:59
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry17:18
xG 0.63–0.64 (50%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Beaulieu14:04
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).