Tue, Nov 3, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 117 | 25 | 334 |
| STL | 05 | 011 | 08 | 024 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:52LAKJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 15:27LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Brayden McNabb, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 19:15LAKTrevor LewisENAssists: Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:28STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:28LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:09STLRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:40STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20LAKAlec Martinez: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:07LAKMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:15STLTroy Brouwer: Interference2 min
- P2 14:19LAKDustin Brown: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:40STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:43STLTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:34LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Lehtera
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Clifford – Shore2:37
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli11:08
xG 0.48–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Lewis – Andreoff – Shore2:15
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Shore – Pearson2:38
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – McBain10:25
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez10:52
xG 0.51–0.48 (51%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Doughty – McNabb15:29
xG 0.47–0.56 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Lehtera – Tarasenko9:20
xG 0.81–0.32 (72%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Rattie – Jaskin – Fabbri3:08
xG 0.05–0.07 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Rattie – Jaskin3:24
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Reaves6:06
xG 0.08–0.12 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko13:57
xG 0.89–0.48 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson8:06
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:52
xG 0.51–0.95 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).