Tue, Nov 3, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 27 | 17 | 325 |
| COL | 117 | 213 | 312 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38COLMatt DucheneAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P2 4:08CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: TJ Brodie, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:19COLJarome IginlaAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 15:14COLErik JohnsonSHAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 18:33CGYSam BennettAssists: Joe Colborne, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 7:34CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 13:01COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:29COLMatt DuchenePPAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 17:11COLJarome IginlaENAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.76 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:36CGYDavid Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 7:19COLTyson Barrie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:24COLBrandon Gormley: Holding2 min
- P3 0:38CGYJiri Hudler: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:43CGYMason Raymond: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan4:38
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Gaudreau – Bennett7:29
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Hudler – Colborne – Monahan6:40
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Stajan – Frolik – Jooris6:35
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie6:05
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Engelland – Wideman2:11
xG 0.15–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Brodie11:50
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Duchene – Landeskog13:07
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Comeau – Grigorenko – Everberg3:49
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – McLeod – Grigorenko6:43
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Skille – Street – Everberg2:13
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Johnson15:22
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Stuart – Gormley13:41
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Barrie – Gormley2:08
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).