Tue, Nov 3, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 02 | 213 | 07 | 222 |
| EDM | 119 | 017 | 313 | 449 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:56EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.48 xG0–1
- P2 0:34PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 12:59PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Radko Gudas, Michal Neuvirth · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 6:13EDMMatt HendricksAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 7:40EDMTaylor HallGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Eric Gryba · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:17EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsENAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:36PHIMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:43PHIBrandon Manning: Interference2 min
- P1 17:43PHIBrandon Manning: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11EDMTaylor Hall: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:43PHIMichal Neuvirth: Delaying game2 min
- P2 16:50EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:24PHIRadko Gudas: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – VandeVelde – White6:45
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl12:05
xG 0.35–0.47 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Laughton11:02
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- Lecavalier – Gagner – Schenn8:33
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Del Zotto16:30
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
- Schultz – Schenn12:18
xG 0.08–0.36 (17%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas15:12
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Letestu – Purcell11:05
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl12:03
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Lander – Yakupov5:02
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gazdic – Lander – Pakarinen4:20
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDavidson – Klefbom13:44
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Gryba – Reinhart13:52
xG 0.56–0.26 (68%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Nurse15:36
xG 0.59–0.53 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).