Wed, Nov 4, 2015·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 6, Chicago Blackhawks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 312 | 07 | 12 | 629 |
| CHI | 518 | 08 | 014 | 03 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08CHIMarko DanoAssists: Ryan Hartman · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 3:02STLAlexander SteenAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 4:37CHIAndrew ShawUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P1 6:35CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 15:12STLRobby FabbriAssists: David Backes · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P1 17:09CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P1 17:52CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
- P2 3:11STLAlexander SteenAssists: Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–5
- P2 17:12STLJay BouwmeesterPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
- P2 19:26STLDavid BackesAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Robby Fabbri · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–5
- OT 3:54STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:37STLJoel Edmundson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 9:54STLJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:25CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:44STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:02STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 16:40CHITeuvo Teravainen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:02STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:43STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lehtera won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Backes – Fabbri9:36
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Gomez – Brouwer – Paajarvi11:02
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Upshall – Backes – Brodziak2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ott – Brodziak – Rattie4:01
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson11:51
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Butler – Gunnarsson10:17
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo6:51
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Teravainen13:41
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Shaw9:42
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Toews – Garbutt – Panarin12:20
xG 0.47–0.29 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Toews – Kane – Panarin2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Gustafsson9:37
xG 0.49–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 2–1
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk20:05
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Seabrook – Svedberg17:25
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 21–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).