Wed, Nov 4, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 06 | 29 | 05 | 05 | 1 | 225 |
| ANA | 014 | 113 | 110 | 02 | 2 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:01FLARocco GrimaldiAssists: Quinton Howden, Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:50ANAChris StewartAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:57FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:54ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 2. FLA Brandon Pirri scored
- 3. ANA Jakob Silfverberg scored
- 4. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 5. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 6. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
- 7. ANA Chris Stewart scored
- 8. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:05FLARoberto Luongo: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:30ANAClayton Stoner: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:14ANAKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P2 5:49FLANick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P2 13:12ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10FLABrian Campbell: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:48FLAQuinton Howden: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:20FLABrian Campbell: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBolland – Pirri – Grimaldi8:46
xG 0.56–0.20 (73%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Howden8:57
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jagr – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:21
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 7–16goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:21
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Petrovic13:40
xG 0.79–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:26
xG 0.74–0.50 (60%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Gudbranson15:49
xG 0.24–0.70 (26%)attempts 7–26goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Maroon – Wagner2:38
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Perry – Santorelli3:45
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:05
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Kesler – Perry – Friberg3:43
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen13:12
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Fowler2:40
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Holzer – Fowler11:13
xG 0.34–0.44 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).