Thu, Nov 5, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 013 | 07 | 129 |
| WSH | 114 | 29 | 18 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47BOSJimmy HayesPPAssists: Brett Connolly, Colin Miller · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 17:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 4:10WSHBrooks LaichGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Michael Latta · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:21WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 18:10WSHKarl AlznerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:55WSHMichael Latta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:52BOSTorey Krug: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:10BOSJimmy Hayes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:52BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:07WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:07BOSTyler Randell: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:26WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 19:49BOSAlex Khokhlachev: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Connolly9:11
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Talbot – Randell – Kemppainen5:22
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Hayes – Spooner10:13
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Krejci – Khokhlachev11:26
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug8:29
xG 0.44–0.09 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Morrow5:21
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug5:09
xG 0.16–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Beagle – Wilson2:36
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov12:48
xG 0.66–0.53 (56%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Laich – Latta – Wilson5:27
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Williams – Beagle2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Schmidt13:23
xG 0.46–0.27 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner12:31
xG 0.38–0.49 (43%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson17:26
xG 0.55–0.72 (43%)attempts 8–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).