Thu, Nov 5, 2015·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 1, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 18 | 05 | 118 |
| MTL | 18 | 07 | 39 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50MTLDale WeisePPAssists: Jeff Petry, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:35NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Jaroslav Halak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:22MTLDavid DesharnaisGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:55MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:57MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:17NYIKyle Okposo: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:30NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:33MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15NYIKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:55MTLDavid Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKulemin – Bailey – Tavares6:53
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Lee3:15
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:00
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Lee6:12
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Strait11:08
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Strait – Leddy2:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:58
xG 0.26–0.27 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Smith-Pelly – Flynn11:14
xG 0.78–0.23 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Pacioretty – Gallagher9:58
xG 0.23–0.09 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Fleischmann – Desharnais – Weise10:48
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Byron – Eller – Galchenyuk9:24
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Beaulieu14:36
xG 0.83–0.37 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Markov – Subban14:42
xG 0.34–0.23 (59%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Emelin – Petry14:38
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).