Thu, Nov 5, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Winnipeg Jets 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 110 | 114 | 07 | 1 | 240 |
| OTT | 111 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 3 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01OTTCody CeciAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 12:04OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 17:19WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 0:26WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. OTT Bobby Ryan scored
- 2. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
- 3. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 4. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 5. OTT Mika Zibanejad scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:47OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:56WPGMark Stuart: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:34WPGTyler Myers: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:58OTTKyle Turris: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Scheifele – Ehlers12:03
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little13:34
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Peluso – Petan5:23
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Stafford – Burmistrov – Lowry12:12
xG 0.43–0.68 (38%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:13
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Myers – Trouba5:39
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba13:42
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Lazar12:33
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ryan – Prince – Zibanejad12:16
xG 0.43–0.46 (48%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Neil – Smith – Puempel5:54
xG 0.06–0.10 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Chiasson – Pageau10:23
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson20:00
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Cowen11:34
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Wiercioch – Ceci14:50
xG 0.29–1.16 (20%)attempts 13–27goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).