Thu, Nov 5, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Nashville Predators 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 19 | 28 | 324 |
| MIN | 06 | 114 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:06NSHMike FisherAssists: Shea Weber · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 17:36MINMarco ScandellaPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:12NSHRoman JosiUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 6:51MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:39NSHCody HodgsonGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:21NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:34MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:56NSHJames Neal: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:56MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:24NSHRyan Ellis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:14NSHBarret Jackman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:54NSHJames Neal: Charging2 min
- P3 18:21NSHColin Wilson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Forsberg13:25
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Wilson – Hodgson – Jarnkrok5:13
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith3:42
xG 0.02–0.04 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Salomaki6:01
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm13:14
xG 0.84–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi19:41
xG 0.46–0.63 (42%)attempts 19–23goals 2–0
- Jackman – Jones10:05
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Zucker – Niederreiter12:43
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Carter – Haula – Coyle6:13
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Vanek – Schroeder – Coyle4:02
xG 0.00–0.04 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Vanek – Granlund9:24
xG 0.49–0.56 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:46
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Scandella – Brodin6:19
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser7:45
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).