Thu, Nov 5, 2015·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 28 | 00 | 117 | 325 |
| LAK | 115 | 08 | 110 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Kevin Connauton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 12:47LAKAlec MartinezPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Jamie McBain · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:13CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Nick Foligno, David Savard · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:52CBJGregory CampbellGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:00LAKJeff CarterAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (20)
- P1 0:27CBJDavid Savard: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:05LAKChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:36LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:36CBJNick Foligno: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 12:32CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:20CBJScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:20CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:20LAKJonathan Quick: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:15CBJGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:15LAKAndy Andreoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:22LAKAndy Andreoff: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:22CBJGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:43LAKJake Muzzin: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:43LAKJake Muzzin: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:43CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39CBJKevin Connauton: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39LAKJordan Nolan: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:39LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51CBJKevin Connauton: Holding2 min
- P3 6:34LAKMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Calvert – Karlsson3:50
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen3:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Foligno – Karlsson3:40
xG 0.07–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Wennberg4:09
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Murray15:08
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Prout – Connauton8:01
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard15:57
xG 0.71–0.98 (42%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Brown – Kopitar10:02
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – Shore – Pearson9:33
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Clifford – Nolan – Andreoff6:34
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Lucic – Toffoli11:11
xG 0.66–1.11 (37%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb13:17
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Martinez10:56
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain14:01
xG 0.58–0.63 (48%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).