Fri, Nov 6, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 210 | 012 | 233 |
| COL | 17 | 09 | 014 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 12:42NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:03NYROscar LindbergGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:44NYRKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:34NYRJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:51COLBen Street: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:51NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:24NYROscar Lindberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:27COLCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:35COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:35NYRDominic Moore: Elbowing2 min
- P3 14:42NYRKevin Klein: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Miller9:40
xG 0.60–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Brassard – Zuccarello – Etem11:43
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Lindberg – Hayes8:42
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Stoll – Moore – Fast7:54
xG 0.24–0.22 (51%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – McIlrath11:18
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Klein – Staal14:08
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Klein – McDonagh2:55
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Landeskog – MacKinnon4:59
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Iginla – Comeau – Soderberg3:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McLeod – Skille – Street3:58
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Soderberg – Landeskog7:49
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Gormley2:13
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Gormley7:54
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Holden – Barrie13:46
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).