Fri, Nov 6, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 015 | 111 | 17 | 233 |
| EDM | 05 | 114 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:45EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 9:06PITDaniel SprongAssists: Matt Cullen, Sergei Plotnikov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 9:45PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:15PITSergei Plotnikov: Interference2 min
- P1 3:04EDMTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:48EDMMatt Hendricks: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38EDMBrandon Davidson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:30EDMAnders Nilsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:55PITIan Cole: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Bonino – Bennett10:31
xG 0.65–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Perron12:21
xG 0.77–0.25 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Fehr – Crosby – Hornqvist10:48
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Cullen – Sprong – Plotnikov6:51
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Dumoulin14:22
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Maatta13:07
xG 0.72–0.59 (55%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Letang – Cole16:22
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Letestu – Purcell9:51
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lander – Pakarinen – Miller7:00
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Draisaitl13:24
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov11:38
xG 0.21–0.81 (21%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gryba – Klefbom2:13
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sekera – Nurse16:25
xG 0.68–0.78 (46%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Davidson – Klefbom13:05
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).