Fri, Nov 6, 2015·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 110 | 116 | 236 |
| ANA | 111 | 111 | 212 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28ANACam FowlerAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 6:43ANAPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.30 xG0–2
- P2 9:15CBJScott HartnellAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, David Savard · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 8:46ANAJosh MansonGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:00CBJScott HartnellAssists: Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:44ANAClayton StonerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:00CBJRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00ANAChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:45CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P2 5:51CBJCody Goloubef: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46CBJScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46CBJScott Hartnell: Charging2 min
- P2 11:46ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:53ANAClayton Stoner: Holding2 min
- P2 19:47ANAKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen5:19
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Saad5:01
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Boll – Wennberg5:05
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Calvert – Karlsson2:25
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Murray13:16
xG 1.03–0.96 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Goloubef – Connauton12:20
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murray2:21
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:38
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon9:38
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Santorelli – Wagner – Friberg6:03
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kesler – Stewart – Hagelin9:57
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen13:31
xG 0.76–0.48 (62%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Fowler15:18
xG 1.10–0.91 (55%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm16:28
xG 0.46–0.66 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).