Sat, Nov 7, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 015 | 112 | 110 | 237 |
| BUF | 04 | 28 | 110 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:18BUFJamie McGinnAssists: Mark Pysyk, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 8:10BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:33VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 10:15VANChris HigginsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:43BUFRasmus RistolainenGWGAssists: Marcus Foligno, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:25BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:25VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:47BUFJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:47VANJake Virtanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:26VANJake Virtanen: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:35BUFDavid Legwand: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:03BUFDavid Legwand: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:04VANJannik Hansen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Dorsett – McCann7:25
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata10:54
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Burrows – Sutter – Virtanen10:35
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Hansen – Baertschi – Horvat10:42
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev17:38
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Bartkowski – Hutton5:35
xG 0.39–0.19 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber6:36
xG 0.21–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moulson – O'Reilly8:10
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- McGinn – Larsson – Eichel7:43
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ennis – Girgensons – Reinhart6:57
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Legwand – Foligno – Deslauriers5:58
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe13:34
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Franson – Weber10:02
xG 0.04–0.11 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen2:20
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).